Our analysis of Asias mitigation opportunities and challenges was built on four country- and sector-level decarbonization case studies: coal in India, steel in China, agriculture and deforestation in Indonesia, and transportation in Japan. Multiple climate scenarios are modelled: achievement of the Paris Agreement target of 1.5C, an increase of 2-2.6C and severe increase of 3.2C by 2050. Please try again later. For a full discussion of our choice of RCP 8.5 and details of our methodology, see the technical appendix of our global report, The hazard data taken from external organizations includes data on todays river flood plains from the World Resources Institute Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer, water stress projections from the World Resources Institute Water Risk Atlas, and climate classification shift data from Franz Rubel and Markus Kottek, Observed and projected climate shifts 19012100 depicted by world maps of the Kppen-Geiger climate classification,. These examples were not meant to be exhaustive; rather, the purpose of these case studies was to understand current decarbonization trends, to identify potential opportunities for decarbonization, including availability and applicability of new technology, and to understand the extent and costs of transition risks associated with decarbonization. 3 Rising sea level threatens coastal communities and ecosystems. You can unsubscribe at any time using the link in our emails. Climate science tells us that further warming and risk increase can be stopped only by achieving zero net greenhouse gas emissions. Half of Asias population, about 2.4 billion people, live in low-lying coastal areas. Asia-Pacific is the most disaster-prone region in the world. A recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report says Africa is likely to experience warming of more than 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. Importantly, planning and strategy building should reflect advanced modeling of climate risk probabilities and assess climate transition and liability risks as well as physical risk. The Global Energy Perspective reference case describes major transitions in the global energy landscape, such as the rise of renewables, a move toward electrification, and shifts in the thinking on climate change and decarbonization. Additionally, adaptation is expensive and may be out of reach for the economically most vulnerable. This report quantifies the physical risk from climate change for Asia. 1 Biomass burnt in the north-eastern regions of our country produces thick haze and smoke. We also provide insurance solutions to protect natural assets and enable more nature-based solutions, as nature is a highly effective climate risk mitigator. For physical assets and infrastructure services, we examined 17 types of infrastructure assets for their vulnerability to different types of climate hazards, with a focus on the potential impacts of flooding in Tokyo and wildfires in Australia. We play music, we set trend. A solution was devised to store meltwater in huge standing structures, providing irrigation throughout the year. More than 30 percent of global CO2 emissions from transportation and buildings comes from Asia. Its share of global greenhouse gas emissions has grown to 45 percent in the past 30 years from about 25 percent. The beauty of the blue planet is that it is self-restoring and self-healing. Oversupply could affect farmers who may face lower prices for their crops, while undersupply could lead to food shortages and price spikes. Lower income groups in both countries are more susceptible than higher income groups, because low-income populations typically work in outdoor-based industries such as agriculture, mining, and construction or rely on the natural environment. Its direct effect is in the form of death and injury from the various manifestations of heat stress, storm and surges, landslide and erosion, drowning from flood; vector, vehicle (water, air, vermin and insects) and food borne diseases; malnutrition due to falling agricultural yield . Their overwhelming dependence on agriculture to earn a living exposes them to the perils of climate change. Using all available climate models for the period from 1998 to 2060, we construct a probability distribution of yields for each crop in each grid cell. Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts, McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com, In India, we find that effectively 30 percent of annual daylight hours may be lost by 2050, glacial mass is expected to drop by 10 to 25 percent by 2030, seafood yields in the Sea of Japan fell by 35 percent, Tokyo Metro is working to minimize the disruption of subway operations, store meltwater in huge standing structures, relocate the countrys capital from Jakarta, the region must invest $1.7 trillion a year in infrastructure through 2030, 60GW to be decommissioned by 2030 and 112GW by 2050, four of the six measures result in cost savings, help Japan meet its Paris Agreement target in 2030. In fact, more than half of all South Asians - or 750 million people across Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka - were impacted by one or more. We find that certain countries are more exposed than others because of their climatic conditions and composition of crops, with India being the most vulnerable. Under RCP 4.5, 2.3 degrees Celsius warming would be reached in the year 2080. It has had observable effects on the environment across the globe, like shrinking of glaciers, accelerated sea-level rise, and intense heat waves. Asia is well positioned to address these challenges and capture the opportunities that come from managing climate risk effectively. UNDP/Arantxa Cedillo. 11. In Asia, many companies and public-sector organizations are beginning to assess their exposure. All crop modeling has been done under the assumption that historic increases in CO. Tokyo is vulnerable to all three sources of flooding: fluvial, pluvial, and coastal. 3 Lower availability of agricultural land is also predicted, due to rising sea levels. Future climate change in Asia will probably cause human health to deteriorate. This study conducted quantitative evaluation of SE in four major basins (Syr Darya Basin . Although climate risks will not necessarily reduce agricultural yields for some breadbaskets or crops, they will likely increase production volatility, destabilizing farmers incomes. While adaptation is critical in the face of climate change, it is not sufficient. We examined six case studies showing the impacts of climate change under RCP 8.5 on five socioeconomic systems across Asia: livability and workability, food systems, physical assets, infrastructure services, and natural capital. In this scenario, 800 million people stand to be at risk, along with drastically diminishing living conditions. For example, as climate change increases the possibility of flooding, the Tokyo Metro is working to minimize the disruption of subway operations, preventing water ingress and minimizing damage caused by floods in the subways through precipitation data acquired from space, as well as enhancing station facilities and emergency response for passenger safety. Rather, Advanced Asia is expected to be an agricultural net beneficiary of climate change in the near term. Prek Ta Am Village, Bos Learv Commune, Jit Borey district. Whats at stake. 3Water stress measured as annual demand for water as share of annual supply of water. The 1-in-100-year flood rainfall, streamflow, and storm surge values were calculated independently from each other using various data sources. Unless otherwise noted, projections are from Woodwell analysis of 20 CMIP5 general circulation models. Among the new technologies, hydrogen-based steel production using an EAF is most technically feasible and already considered to be part of a potential long-term solution for decarbonizing the steel industry on a large scale. In Bangladesh, around 18 million people living in coastal areas will lose their homes if the sea level rises by one metre. For food systems, we find the risk of a grain yield decline of greater than 5 percent in a given year could be 1.4 times higher by 2050 for Asia relative to today, compared with 1.9 times globally. Countries in southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa also score relatively low in terms of vulnerability to physical risks and low levels of adaptative capacity. By the nature of the choice of agricultural models, these results do not account for specific extreme events such as flash flooding or individual heat waves. 13. The Maldives, among the six countries cited in the ADB report, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels. Many countries across the region are experiencing unusually hot temperatures. While a shift to renewables is under way, challenges remain to decommission coal plants while meeting growing power demand. Shifting rainfall patterns and higher temperatures affect agricultural productivity. In our case study of the coal-fired power sector in India, we examine various scenarios: In scenario 1, we assume 30GW of additional subcritical coal capacities to be decommissioned by 2030, and 90GW by 2050. This reduction in emissions would help Japan meet its Paris Agreement target in 2030. Not just day temperature, night temperatures have also increased. Getting there will not be easy. The analyses identified hot spots where the deterioration is expected to be most severe. 2Damage identified for several assets (eg, substations, stations, data centers, hospitals). Following standard practice, we typically define current and future (2030, 2050) states as average climatic behavior over multidecade periods. In Thailand, Swiss Re has supported farmers for a number of years with the Thai Rice Insurance Scheme, which compensates farmers for losses from weather events. Key strategies to reduce emissions in this sector include promoting a shift from a diet rich in animal protein to plant-based protein, improving farming practices (such as dry direct seeding, improved rice paddy water management, and improved fertilization of rice), and promoting sustainable forestry (ending deforestation and scaling reforestation). More recent analysis has predicted sea-level rise of about 1 meter by the year 2100 based on several semi-empirical models. This could be done in a number of ways. The Global Energy Perspective reference case describes major transitions in the global energy landscape, such as the rise of renewables, a move toward electrification, and shifts in the thinking on climate change and decarbonization. We find that climate risk is increasing in these six cases, and the characteristics of climate risk we identified from our global analysisincreasing, spatial, nonstationary, nonlinear, systemic, regressive, and underpreparedare evident. H. Damon Matthews et al., Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets, and the implications for climate mitigation targets, Environmental Research Letters, January 2018, Volume 13, Number 1; David Archer, Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, March 2005, Volume 110, Issue C9; H. Damon Matthews and Susan Solomon, Irreversible does not mean unavoidable, Science, April 2013, Volume 340, Issue 6131. Unsurprisingly, the scenarios show vulnerable ASEAN countries will be impacted the most in the region. 7 In India, we partnered with Tata AIG General Insurance to provide India's first parametric insurance protection in Nagaland state, which is susceptible to damage from heavy rainfall. West Asia is among the regions worst affected by climate change. Particular health vulnerabilities of women and girls to climate change impacts . Although abatement costs are generalized global costs from our analysis and not specific to Indonesia, we believe they provide a useful guide for each measure. For the livability and workability system, we considered what extreme heat and humidity mean for urban populations and outdoor-based sectors in China and India. Unabated climate change would bring devastating consequences to countries in Asia and the Pacific, with the temperature increase over the Asian landmass expected to reach 6 degree Celsius by the end of the century under a business-as-usual scenario. In Australia, we find wildfires could cause substantial damage to different types of infrastructure assets ranging from transportation to energy (Exhibit 6). We speak. Source: Rubel and Kottek, 2010; Woodwell Climate Research Center: World Resources Institute Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer; McKinsey Global Institute analysis. Data limitations affect our ability to assess infrastructure effects regionally. Indonesia is already planning to move its heavily populated capitalJakarta, to Borneo to protect its residents from dangerous flooding. Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research has reported that, if the predictions relating to global warming made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change occur, climate-related factors could cause Indias GDP to decline by up to 9%. Global temperatures rose about 1.98F offsite link (1.1C) from 1901 to 2020, but climate change refers to more than an increase in temperature. 2018 was the countrys sixth hottest year on record, and 11 of its 15 warmest years have occurred since 2004. 10 10. Unlike developed countries, many nations in Asia and the Pacific cope with the effects of climate change while at the same time trying to raise living standards. A report from The Lancet, the world's leading general medical journal, declared climate change as "the biggest global health threat of the 21st century."1 While the health impact of climate change is still not fully In our case study analysis, we examined six Asian breadbasketsChina, India, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Australia and New Zealand, and Japan and South Koreato reveal different impacts among individual crops. At the same time, Asia is a leader in technology such as electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles (EVs and FCVs). McKinsey & Company Future of Asia By 2050, parts of Asia may see increasing average temperatures, lethal heat waves, extreme precipitation events, severe hurricanes, drought, and changes in. For the purpose of this analysis, we focus on grid cells in the six highest-producing breadbasket regions in Asia for each crop. The biome refers to the naturally occurring community of flora and fauna inhabiting a particular region. See also Christopher R. Schwalm, Spencer Glendon, and Philip B. Duffy, RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, August 2020. Improving access to water, managing water more efficiently,anddiversifying cropshelps people to survive. These erratic weather patterns not only take lives but also displace people, destroy infrastructure, contaminate fresh water, crush ecosystems, and wipe out agricultural land. We attempt to include impacts from a wide range of hazards. By 2050, scenario 2 would require decommissioning of about 110GW of subcritical coal plants. UNICEF South Asia. But it should be reconsidered. Raising awareness about natural hazards,planning disaster drills, andinstalling early warning systemscan help prepare people ahead of time and save their lives and livelihoods in the face of disaster. It also includes sea level rise, changes in weather patterns like drought and flooding, and much more. Central and northwestern India fall under the most heatwave affected regions. Things that we depend upon and value water, energy, transportation, wildlife, agriculture, ecosystems, and human health are experiencing . The Mekong river is very low at the end of the dry season. Risk values calculated based on expected values, ie, probability-weighted value at risk. Damsea/Shutterstock.com. We highlight the following key methodological choices: To link Asian physical climate risk to socioeconomic impact, we investigate six cases that illustrate Asias exposure to climate change extremes and proximity to physical thresholds. The probability of an extreme storm surge event can be higher when conditioned on the occurrence of extreme precipitation compared to the probability of extreme storm surge estimated when assuming the two events are independent, for example. Millions of people who rely on natural resources for food and work bear the brunt of climate change. While Asia-Pacifics poorer communities contribute the least to greenhouse gas emissions, they are the ones feeling the consequences of climate change the most. Ben Kirtman et al., Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. UNDP Indonesia/ Tim Laman. For natural capital, we examined the potential impacts of climate change on glaciers, oceans, and forests. This provides positive feedback that stimulates further heating of aerosols. Assessing these uncertainties, we find that our approach likely results in conservative estimates of inherent risk because of the skew in uncertainties of many hazard projections toward worse outcomes as well as challenges with modeling the many potential knock-on effects associated with direct physical risk. One thing is clear: We need to cut our emissions in half by 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2050. Despite being exposed to some of the worst climate impacts in the world, the East Asia and Pacific region is responding with innovation, strength and immense. 1 We characterize risk within and across different countries and categorize impacts in four different types of countries in Asia: Frontier Asia, Emerging Asia, Advanced Asia, and China. This is due to the significant risks and impacts to both advanced and emerging markets. Like Frontier Asia, these countries are projected to see extreme increases in heat and humidity by 2050 (although potentially less extreme than in Frontier Asia), and growing exposure to extreme precipitation events. 2 12. The lower end of the range assumes that todays sectoral composition persists, while the higher end is based on projections from IHS Markit Economics and Country Risk on sectoral transitions and GDP increases. By 2050, their average temperatures are projected to rise by two to four degrees Celsius, and they could face much higher probabilities of lethal heat waves. By the nature of the choice of agricultural models, these results do not account for specific extreme events such as flash flooding or individual heat waves. The biome refers to the naturally occurring community of flora and fauna inhabiting a particular region. In Asia and the Pacific, more than 60 percent of people work in sectors highly susceptible to changing weather patterns. Scooter drivers in Ho Chi Minh City on November 01, 2016. Climate change in Asia and the Pacific. The eastern coast and Telangana have also been affected by 2500 deaths in 2015. The Swiss Re Institute has developed a Climate Economics Index to measure how unmitigated climate change could impact 48 of the world's economies (90% of global GDP). These influence the risk of physical damage (such as crop shortages and infrastructure damage), which finally influence the risk of financial harm. Risks arise as a result of long causal chains. Media can contribute to spreading awareness. This threshold was chosen because the commonly defined heat threshold for human survivability is 35C wet-bulb, and large cities with significant urban heat island effects could push 34C wet-bulb heat waves over the 35C threshold.
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